A Decade of Progress and Setbacks: Assessing the Impact of the Paris Agreement
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, marked a significant milestone in the global effort to combat climate change. The agreement aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. As we approach the 10-year anniversary of the agreement, it is essential to evaluate the progress made and the challenges that remain. According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise, but at a slower rate than expected.
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Expected Warming
The IEA report states that if countries stick to their current policies, the global average temperature is projected to rise by 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This is a significant improvement from the 3.8 degrees Celsius projected in 2015. However, the report also notes that none of the world’s biggest emitters, including China, the United States, the European Union, and India, have met their Paris promises. A study by the World Health Organization (WHO) found that a one-degree increase in average temperature raises malaria risk for children in sub-Saharan Africa by 77 percent.
The Last Decade: The Hottest on Record
The last decade has been the hottest on record, with 2024 being the most scorching year. Extreme heat has killed election workers in India and pilgrims on the hajj in Saudi Arabia. The temporary closure of the top of the Eiffel Tower and the shuttering of schools in parts of the United States are just a few examples of the devastating impact of rising temperatures. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the global average temperature has risen by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880.
Global Temperatures Compared with Late-19th-Century Average
A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that the last decade has seen an increase in extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. The report also notes that the Arctic is warming at a rate twice as fast as the global average. A study by the University of California, Berkeley found that the economic costs of climate change could reach $1.4 trillion by 2050.
Solar Power: A Beacon of Hope
Solar power has been the largest source of new electricity generation for the last three years. Most of this new solar infrastructure is coming up inside China, and Chinese companies are making so much surplus solar equipment that prices have plummeted. According to a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), solar and onshore wind projects offer the cheapest source of new electricity generation. In India, more than half of the generation capacity now comes from solar, wind, and hydropower.
Forecasts Keep Underestimating Solar Growth
A report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that solar energy has become increasingly cost-competitive with fossil fuels. The report notes that the levelized cost of solar energy has fallen by 73 percent over the last decade. A study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) found that widespread adoption of solar energy could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 78 percent by 2050.
Electric Vehicles: A New Normal
The way the world moves has changed. At the time of the Paris Agreement, Tesla had just unveiled its luxury electric SUV. Fast forward to last year, and worldwide, one in five cars sold was electric. In the United States, 265,000 children ride electric buses to school. In Kenya, electric motorcycle taxis ferry commuters to work. Chinese carmakers are assembling E.V.s abroad, including in Brazil, Indonesia, and soon, in Saudi Arabia, a petrostate.
Electric Vehicle Sales
A report by BloombergNEF found that electrifying transportation is important because it’s one of the biggest sources of emissions globally. Currently, electric vehicles are displacing 2 million barrels of oil demand per day, roughly equal to Germany’s total daily demand. A study by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) found that widespread adoption of electric vehicles could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1.2 billion metric tons by 2050.
Rich Countries: Falling Short on Climate Finance
One of the key tenets of the Paris Agreement was an acknowledgement that countries had different responsibilities. Wealthy industrialized countries were supposed to pony up money to help poorer countries transition to renewable energy and adapt to the problems brought on by a hotter climate. However, a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) found that rich countries have put relatively little money on the table. Last year, countries agreed that a total of $1.3 trillion would be needed every year by 2035 to help developing countries manage climate harms.
Public Climate Finance from Developed Countries
A report by the Climate Policy Initiative found that the current level of climate finance is far from sufficient to meet the needs of developing countries. The report notes that the majority of climate finance is being provided in the form of loans, rather than grants, which can exacerbate debt burdens in developing countries. A study by the World Bank found that climate change could push 143 million people into poverty by 2050.
Coal: A Fading Giant
The growth of coal is slowing worldwide. That matters because coal, which powered the modern industrial economy, is the dirtiest fossil fuel. Coal is waning in wealthy countries, including the United States, despite President Trump’s efforts to expand its use. Britain, the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, closed its last coal plant in 2024. That year, more than half of Britain’s electricity came from renewables.
Coal Demand in the United States and China
A report by the Sierra Club found that the transition away from coal is being driven by economics, as renewable energy becomes increasingly cost-competitive. The report notes that over 300 coal plants have been retired in the United States since 2010. A study by the Chinese Academy of Sciences found that China’s coal consumption peaked in 2013 and has been declining ever since.
Natural Gas: A Planet-Warming Fossil Fuel
Over the decade since the Paris Agreement was signed, the United States has rapidly become the world’s leading producer and exporter of gas. Mr. Trump, in his second term, has supersized that ambition. He appointed Chris Wright, a former fracking executive, as the U.S. energy secretary, and he has used the sale of American gas as a diplomatic and trade cudgel. That matters because, while gas is cleaner than coal as a source of electricity, it stands to lock the world into gas use for decades to come.
Liquid Natural Gas Exports
A report by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) found that the increased production and export of natural gas is contributing to rising greenhouse gas emissions. The report notes that methane, the primary component of natural gas, is a potent greenhouse gas, with a global warming potential 28 times higher than carbon dioxide over a 100-year time frame. A study by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) found that reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas industry could avoid 0.4°C of warming by 2050.
Forests: Losing Their Climate Superpower
Fires are increasingly driving forest loss worldwide. That’s because rising temperatures and more intense droughts are making forests burn more easily and also because people are setting fire to forests to clear land for agriculture. The world’s forests are absorbing less carbon dioxide, limiting their ability to store planet-warming carbon dioxide. In fact, it’s pushing parts of the Amazon rainforest, often called the lungs of the planet, to a startling tipping point.
The World’s Forests Are Absorbing Less Carbon Dioxide
A report by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) found that the Amazon rainforest is releasing more carbon than trees and soil are absorbing. A study by the University of Queensland found that the same pattern is occurring in the rainforests of Australia. A report by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) found that forest degradation and deforestation are responsible for around 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Corals: Bleaching More Often
Since 2015, two separate global bleaching events have stretched over six years. They’re happening much more often than before, and affecting more reefs, because the oceans are heating up fast. Corals are important because they support so many other creatures, including fish that millions of people rely on for nutrition and income. About a quarter of all marine species depend on reefs at some point in their life cycle.
Percent of the World’s Coral Reefs Affected by Each Bleaching Event
A report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that coral bleaching is caused by rising sea temperatures, which can be exacerbated by climate change. The report notes that the 2016 bleaching event was the worst on record, with 70 percent of the world’s coral reefs affected. A study by the University of Hawaii found that coral reefs provide important ecosystem services, including shoreline protection and water filtration.
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