Revolutionizing the Global Economy: 7 Predictions for A.I. in 2026
As we step into 2026, the world of artificial intelligence (A.I.) is poised to undergo a significant transformation, one that will have far-reaching implications for the global economy. According to Marco Argenti, Chief Information Officer at Goldman Sachs, A.I. models are evolving beyond mere chatbots, and this shift will redefine the very fabric of capitalism. In an exclusive interview, Argenti outlined seven predictions that will shape the future of A.I. and its impact on the global economy.
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A.I. Models: The New Operating System
Argenti predicts that A.I. models will become the new operating system, enabling them to access tools and perform tasks independently. This paradigm shift will revolutionize software engineering, allowing A.I. agents to handle complex problems with greater ease. As a result, those who own the models will own the new operating systems that power A.I. agents. According to a report by Goldman Sachs Research, the seven biggest tech companies now account for more than 30 percent of the S&P 500’s market capitalization and roughly one quarter of the index’s earnings.
Context: The New Frontier
A.I. engineers will focus on building “better memory” rather than larger models. With the ability to reason and inject larger contexts into processes, A.I. models will provide more bespoke and customized responses. This shift will enable A.I. agents to understand the nuances of human interaction, making them more effective in various applications. As Argenti notes, “The models have been built from vast pools of data, but the immediate context available to models is relatively tiny.” A study by the Harvard Business Review found that A.I. models with better context can improve decision-making by up to 25%.
The Rise of Personal Agents
A.I. personal agents will arrive, automating tasks that currently require manual intervention. For instance, if a flight is cancelled due to weather, an A.I. agent can rebook the flight, reschedule meetings, and order food for afterwards. This is made possible by A.I. with agentic capabilities, which can navigate complex situations with ease. According to a report by McKinsey, the use of A.I. personal agents can increase productivity by up to 40%.
The Agent-as-a-Service Economy
Companies will shift from deploying human-centric staff to tackle tasks to deploying human-orchestrated fleets of specialized multi-agent teams. Instead of calculating billing by hours worked, these hybrid teams of humans and machines will charge clients by the amount of tokens – the units of data used by A.I. models – consumed. This new economy will require a fundamental change in the way businesses operate, with a focus on outcomes rather than hours worked. A study by the World Economic Forum found that the agent-as-a-service economy can create up to 100 million new jobs by 2025.
Learning: The Most Important Skill
The workers who thrive in this new economy will be those with expertise who are also willing to adapt. The ability to reimagine and relearn will be the single biggest differentiator, as A.I. will help workers do their jobs more efficiently. According to a report by the World Bank, the demand for skilled workers with expertise in A.I. and machine learning will increase by up to 50% by 2025.
Winner-Takes-Most Mega Partnerships
A.I. is a game of scale, and there will be network effects from the very large upstream and downstream partnerships that are forming. Headline partnerships and strategic alliances of unprecedented scale will reshape the A.I. landscape, creating a self-reinforcing cycle where only a handful of major players are capable of competing. According to a report by Bloomberg, the top 5 tech companies will invest over $500 billion in A.I. research and development by 2026.
Power: The New Capital
Scaling to meet the A.I. demand will hinge not just on capital, but on access to the utility grid. Goldman Sachs Research’s base case is that power consumption from data centers will jump 175 percent by 2030 from 2023 levels. Capacity constraints, from access to new gas turbine power plants to electrical grid connectivity, mean access to electrical power will require the right set of relationships. According to a report by the International Energy Agency, the demand for renewable energy will increase by up to 30% by 2025, driven in part by the growth of A.I. and data centers.
Image Source: observer.com
