Tropical Disturbance in the Atlantic: A Potential Hurricane
The tropical disturbance that emerged from Africa on Sunday remains disorganized, with no signs of circulation development yet. However, the consensus among computer forecast models suggests that atmospheric conditions ahead of it will be supportive enough for it to develop into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gabrielle. The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of the system becoming at least a depression over the next week, with forecasters drawing a large potential development area due to uncertainty about when a conducive atmosphere will materialize.
The disturbance is currently attached to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is complicating its development. Additionally, it is being pressed by Saharan dust from the north and may encounter hostile upper winds ahead. Assuming the system organizes, its strength will play a significant role in determining its future track. Computer forecasts that organize and strengthen the system before it reaches the Caribbean islands show it turning quickly to the north into the open Atlantic.
Tracking the System’s Progress
The system’s potential track is still uncertain, with some forecasts suggesting it could stay weaker longer and continue on a more southern track closer to the islands. If the system organizes and winds in the circulation reach at least 40 mph, it will be named Tropical Storm Gabrielle. A series of strong jet stream dips are forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast, which should serve to lift the system north well east of the Bahamas.
This graphic shows the tropics in the Atlantic Basin.
(Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather)
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Besides potential Gabrielle, no other systems appear ready to develop. However, in another week or so, the persistent cold fronts lodged over Florida, causing heavy rain, may become the focus for development over the Bahamas or off the Southeast coast. There is currently no sign of anything developing yet.
In the Pacific
There are two systems of note in the Pacific. The tropical depression off the coast of Mexico is forecast to become Tropical Storm Lorena and track toward Baja California. The waters around Baja are relatively cool, so the system is expected to weaken when it approaches land. Hurricane Kiko is heading in the general direction of Hawaii, with the consensus of long-range computer forecasts suggesting it will pass south of the islands. However, it will bear watching, especially for residents of Hawaii, who should plan to stay informed.
This graphic shows an overview of the tropics in the Pacific Basin.
(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
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