Hurricane Melissa Intensifies, Poses Catastrophic Threat to Jamaica
Hurricane Melissa remains on track to bring potentially catastrophic impacts to the island of Jamaica as the Category 4 storm continues to intensify. According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm’s extreme rainfall, powerful winds, and storm surge pose a significant threat to the island, particularly the eastern half, including the capital, Kingston.
Updated at 10 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, the National Hurricane Center’s forecast indicates that Hurricane Melissa will crawl west over the near-record-warm Caribbean waters, pumping tropical moisture on tropical-storm-force winds against the tall mountains, leading to extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities.
Extreme Weather Conditions Expected
Extreme rainfall, measured in feet, is forecasted, with winds at Hurricane Melissa’s landfall on the south coast expected to be at least Category 4. Storm surge is forecast up to 13 feet above normal high tide in the bays and harbors east of the landfall point. The consensus of multiple computer forecasts suggests that the energy in the water will power Melissa to high-end Category 4 or Category 5 intensity, with the National Hurricane Center explicitly forecasting Category 5 strength overnight tonight. 
This satellite image shows Hurricane Melissa south of Jamaica on Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025.
(NOAA)
The storm’s impact on Jamaica is expected to be devastating, with the potential for widespread destruction, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. The capital, Kingston, is especially vulnerable to storms moving from south to north due to its harbor opening to the south. If Melissa makes landfall a short distance west of Kingston, the peak winds will rip through the city, and the storm surge will devastate the coastline. 
Hurricane Melissa rainfall forecast for Jamaica.
(FOX Weather)
Other Areas at Risk
The extreme flood threat continues on the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti, where a total of 3 feet of rain is forecast. Heavy rain and flooding are possible in other parts of the country as well. Heavy rainfall along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic will continue in spots, then slowly taper off as Melissa creeps farther away. Hurricane conditions look likely in the eastern provinces of Cuba, so the government there has issued a Hurricane Watch. The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands also appear to be in Melissa’s path. 
Hurricane Melissa statistics on Sunday morning.
(FOX Weather)
Bermuda will have to keep an eye on it late in the week. It’s forecast to head in that general direction. Slow-moving intense hurricanes don’t hit mountainous islands very often, but when they do, the results are catastrophic. In 1963, Hurricane Flora crossed over Haiti and parked over eastern Cuba, causing widespread destruction and dumping some 5 feet of rain in Jamaica. We can only hope that Melissa spares as many people on Jamaica as possible from its worst impacts. For the latest updates and forecast, visit Here
Image Source: www.foxweather.com
