Hurricane Melissa: A Category 5 Storm Bears Down on Jamaica
As of Monday, October 27, 2025, Hurricane Melissa has intensified into an extraordinary Category 5 hurricane, with its high-confidence track indicating a landfall on Jamaica’s southwest coast tomorrow morning. According to the latest forecast, Melissa could undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, which would reduce the peak winds but increase the storm’s size, potentially leading to more extensive damage.
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At the time of landfall, Melissa is expected to be a strong Category 4 or Category 5 storm, with winds of up to 200 mph in the mountains, comparable to a strong tornado. The National Hurricane Center forecasts 15 to 30 inches of rain, with some areas potentially receiving up to 40 inches, mostly in the next two days.
This graphic shows the latest information on Hurricane Melissa.
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Storm Surge and Flooding Concerns
The storm surge, which is forecast to reach up to 13 feet above normal high tide, will pose a significant threat to coastal areas, particularly in south-facing bays and harbors. Kingston Harbour, surrounded by the capital city, is of particular concern, as the storm surge could overwhelm the peninsula where the international airport is located.
This image shows the forecast rain totals from Hurricane Melissa.
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The heavy rainfall, combined with the storm surge, will put a significant strain on the drainage system, exacerbating the flood potential. Residents are advised to seek elevated locations in concrete buildings and to secure their vehicles in protected areas.
Other Areas at Risk
In addition to Jamaica, other areas in the Caribbean are also at risk, including the Tiburon Peninsula in southwestern Haiti, which is expected to receive over 3 feet of rain, and the south coast of the Dominican Republic, which will continue to experience outer bands and potential flooding.
This satellite image shows Hurricane Melissa on Monday, Oct. 27, 2025.
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Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands are also in the storm’s path, with preparations needing to be completed by tomorrow. Later, on Thursday night, Hurricane Melissa is forecast to be in the vicinity of Bermuda, although it is expected to be a weaker storm by then.
East Coast Impact
Despite concerns on social media, Hurricane Melissa is not expected to directly affect the East Coast of the United States, as fall cold fronts will keep it at sea.
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