Hurricane Melissa Threatens Jamaica and the Caribbean
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross shares his latest analysis on the potentially catastrophic impacts of Melissa as it slowly churns in the Caribbean Sea. The storm’s slow movement and potential for strengthening have raised concerns about the long-duration impacts on Jamaica and other islands in the region.
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross shares his latest analysis on the potentially catastrophic impacts of Melissa as it slowly churns in the Caribbean Sea.
Updated Friday 9:30 a.m. ET, the forecast indicates that Jamaica will likely experience long-duration impacts from likely Hurricane Melissa, including relentless heavy rain and gusty winds. Even if the strongest winds stay offshore, the island can expect three or four days of severe weather, making it essential for people to be in a safe spot by the end of tomorrow and prepared to stay for at least three days.
Storm Track and Intensification
Tropical Storm Melissa is still disorganized, but computer analysis suggests that the atmospheric pattern over the storm is slowly becoming more conducive for it to organize and strengthen. The hostile upper winds are gradually letting up, and it will take at least another day or a day and a half for the storm to pull itself together. By tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening, the consensus of the various forecast models is that Melissa will be a hurricane.
The predicted track of Melissa’s core, where the strongest winds are located, has been essentially stationary since yesterday, instead of drifting north as forecast. This means that the storm center will be farther south when it starts moving west, potentially keeping the strongest winds over the Caribbean, at least through the weekend.
Impacts on the Caribbean Islands
The rest of the forecast is daunting, with an increasing consensus that Melissa will make a hard turn to the north after the weekend, potentially bringing extremely strong winds over the western part of Jamaica around Tuesday. The storm is forecast to be a Category 4 hurricane at that time, and some computer forecasts show it as a Category 5.
Tropical Storm Melissa Info from NHC
(NOAA)
Rain is also forecast to be relentless along the southern coast of Hispaniola, the island containing Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Southwestern Haiti looks to be the most vulnerable to catastrophic flooding and landslides, with more than a foot of rain already fallen in the region around Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic.
Life-Threatening Impacts and Flooding
Life-threatening impacts are likely, including flash flooding and mudslides from days of tropical rain. The rain weakens trees and power poles, making them more susceptible to even moderate-strength winds. Everybody old enough in Jamaica remembers 1988’s Hurricane Gilbert, which devastated the island by tracking east to west just inland from the southern coast. Melissa will be different due to its slow forward motion, making it more relentless.
Melissa Tropical Threat
(FOX Weather)
Hurricane Melissa is forecast to turn north on Tuesday as it will increasingly be picked up by a strong dip in the jet stream over the Southeast U.S. This will take the storm over eastern Cuba and the Southeastern Bahamas, including possibly the Turks and Caicos Islands. Everyone there should stay informed, and the strength of the storm when it impacts Cuba and the Bahamas is unknowable due to the potential effects of the mountains on Jamaica on the circulation.
Conclusion and Recommendations
The only impacts in Florida are expected to be rip currents and dangerous surf on the East Coast, especially Palm Beach County and north. There is no threat of a direct hit on the state. In addition, the Gulf, Belize, and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula are in the clear. Nothing else is in the works in the tropics, and the odds favor this being the last card Mother Nature is going to play in Hurricane Season 2025.
For the latest updates and analysis, visit Here
Image Source: www.foxweather.com
