Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine: Uncertainty and Threats to the Southeast Coast
The National Hurricane Center has designated a disturbance in the Atlantic as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, indicating that tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for land areas based on the forecast of the system organizing and intensifying. The Bahamas Department of Meteorology has posted Tropical Storm Warnings for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas, including Nassau, the Abacos, and Grand Bahama Island, in anticipation of the disturbance becoming Tropical Storm Imelda while it’s in the vicinity of the islands later today and tomorrow.
There is high confidence that Imelda will move north offshore of the Florida east coast, with the Miami/Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach metropolitan area potentially seeing edge effects tomorrow into Monday, including gusty squalls and periods of heavy rain. However, no direct hit from a significant storm is expected for South Florida, although boating conditions will be dangerous.
Forecast and Potential Impacts
Through Sunday and Monday, Imelda is forecast to intensify, reaching hurricane strength offshore of the Central or North Florida coast and heading in the direction of the South Carolina coast. Multiple weather features, including powerful Hurricane Humberto to the east, a non-tropical low-pressure system over the Southeast U.S. to the northwest, and a strong dip in the jet stream plunging into the North Atlantic mid to late week, will all be vying to steer or grab Imelda.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine and Hurricane Humberto remain active in Atlantic.
(NOAA)
There appear to be three scenarios in play: 1) the low pressure system over the Southeast pulls Imelda inland as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane; 2) Imelda moves slowly enough that it can be grabbed by the big dip in the jet stream that will also grab Humberto and move it out to sea; or 3) the various forces trying to affect Imelda’s track more or less neutralize each other, and the storm stalls over or near the Southeast coast.
Hurricane Humberto and Its Potential Impact on Imelda
Hurricane Humberto is already a Category 4 and is forecast to reach Category 5 strength tomorrow before slowly weakening as it heads north. There is high confidence that Humberto will arc between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda and then head out to sea, potentially affecting the track of Imelda to its west, including causing it to stall and loop.
Hurricane Humberto
(Bryan Norcross / NOAA)
Residents of coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina should be prepared for potential flooding impacts and consider what they’ll do next week if a hurricane makes landfall or parks itself nearby. Flood-prone areas from storm surge or heavy rain could become dangerous.
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