La Niña’s Return: What it Means for Southern California’s Drought
After months of subtle temperature shifts in the Pacific Ocean, La Niña has officially returned, bringing with it the potential for another dry winter in Southern California. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced the arrival of La Niña conditions, which could exacerbate the region’s existing drought. According to Emily Becker, a research associate professor at the University of Miami who studies the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the previous La Niña event played a significant role in the region’s dry winter, fueling some of the most destructive fires in Los Angeles history.
Understanding La Niña’s Impact
La Niña is a complex climate pattern that typically drives drought in Southern California. While ENSO shifts don’t guarantee drying or stronger storms, they increase the chances for certain climate patterns. Becker notes that warming ocean temperatures caused by human-caused climate change have been magnifying some of the effects of La Niña, making it behave like it’s stronger than it looks. This could lead to a more severe drought, even if the official La Niña conditions are relatively weak.
The southern half of California is still recovering from the last year of below-average rainfall, and the reemergence of La Niña could mean more drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor reports that the region remains at relatively high risk for fire and in severe drought, similar to the conditions when the January firestorm broke out. Another winter with La Niña could further worsen these conditions, according to Becker.
Forecasting the Future
NOAA predicts that La Niña conditions have a 55% chance of remaining in place through at least December, with the possibility of lingering until March. While it’s unlikely to be enough to pull the region out of drought, forecasters are expecting an “early season storm” to bring some rainfall to Southern California early next week. However, most of urban, coastal Los Angeles won’t see amounts above a half-inch, according to the National Weather Service.
Daniel Swain, a UCLA climatologist, notes that even one or two “juicier-than-average” storms could change the outlook, but for now, Central and Southern California are favored to be drier than average. As the region prepares for another potentially dry winter, it’s essential to understand the complexities of La Niña and its impact on the environment.
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