Understanding the Sources and Notes Behind Hurricane Tracking
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the primary source of tracking data for hurricanes, providing critical information on storm trajectories, wind speeds, and potential landfalls. The NHC’s data is used to generate tracking maps, which show probabilities of at least 5 percent, with forecasts available for up to five days. It’s essential to note that wind speed probability data is not available north of 60.25 degrees north latitude, highlighting the limitations of current tracking technologies.
A closer examination of the intensity chart reveals that the best track and forecast path are also derived from the NHC, while forecast models are provided by the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. This collaborative approach ensures that the data is both accurate and reliable, drawing on the expertise of multiple institutions. The intensity chart is a crucial tool for understanding the potential impact of a hurricane, allowing residents and emergency responders to prepare for the worst.
Wind Arrivals and Storm Surges: Understanding the Data
The wind arrivals table is generated from a New York Times analysis of NHC data, incorporating geographic locations from the U.S. Census Bureau and Natural Earth, as well as time zones from Google. This table provides predicted arrival times of sustained, damaging winds of 58 m.p.h. or more for select cities, giving residents a clear understanding of when to expect the storm to hit. It’s worth noting that if damaging winds reach a location, there is no more than a 10 percent chance that they will arrive before the “earliest reasonable” time and a 50 percent chance they will arrive before the “most likely” time.
In addition to wind arrivals, the storm surge map is a critical tool for understanding the potential flooding risks associated with a hurricane. The NHC provides storm surge data, which is used to generate forecasts for the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, it’s essential to recognize that the actual areas that could become flooded may differ from the areas shown on this map, as it only accounts for tides and not waves or flooding caused by rainfall.
Radar and Satellite Imagery: Enhancing Our Understanding of Hurricanes
Radar imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides a detailed look at the storm’s trajectory and intensity, allowing forecasters to track the hurricane’s movement and make predictions about its potential impact. Similarly, satellite imagery from NOAA and the Japanese Meteorological Agency, via the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, offers a broader perspective on the storm’s size and movement.
The precipitation map, which draws on data from the National Weather Service and NOAA, provides a comprehensive understanding of the storm’s potential rainfall impacts. This map is essential for residents and emergency responders, as it allows them to prepare for potential flooding and plan accordingly. As with all the data and maps used in hurricane tracking, it’s crucial to recognize the sources and limitations of the information, ensuring that users can make informed decisions about their safety and well-being.
Note: All basemaps are built with Daylight (urban areas) and Natural Earth (roads, labels, terrain), providing a consistent and reliable foundation for the data and maps used in hurricane tracking.
Image Source: www.nytimes.com
