A White Christmas: A Fading Dream for Many in the East
For those living in the eastern half of the United States and Canada, the prospect of a white Christmas is dwindling. An early-season snow that dusted New York City and blanketed Toronto offered a glimpse of a postcard-perfect December, but as Christmas approaches, the atmosphere has undergone a significant shift. Warm weather is moving into the East, making it more likely that lingering snowbanks will turn into slush, dimming the hopes of waking up to a white Christmas.
According to Shawn Carter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, “Unfortunately, a white Christmas across most of the country is looking less likely this year.” The National Weather Service sets a bar for a white Christmas: at least one inch of snow must be on the ground on Christmas morning, or at least one inch must fall during the day. Environment Canada, the country’s forecasting agency, has a slightly different measure, requiring at least 2 centimeters (about 0.8 inches) of snow to be on the ground at 7 a.m.
The Standard for a White Christmas
The concept of a white Christmas varies depending on where you’re celebrating. In the United States, the National Weather Service’s criteria are widely accepted, while in Canada, Environment Canada’s measure is the standard. A white Christmas is so reliable in Canada that meteorologists also track a “perfect Christmas” — a somewhat rarer event in which not only is there snow on the ground, but snow is actively falling as presents are opened.
Historically, New York City has seen a white Christmas only a handful of times in recent years. Until last year, Central Park hadn’t seen a formal white Christmas in 15 years. At 7 a.m. on Christmas Day last year, the snow on the ground was measured right at an inch in Central Park. This year, the drought has been historical, with warm weather dominating the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada.
Hope in the High Country
While the outlook is bleak for most snow-lovers in the East, there is hope for those willing to drive into the clouds. The Sierra Nevada and the Rocky Mountains are expected to receive a significant dumping of “skiable” snow from a powerful West Coast storm system. Forecasters are already warning travelers heading to the mountains to go early, as the very snow expected to make the holiday white is likely to make the roads treacherous by Christmas Eve.
For the best chance of a guaranteed white Christmas, Dr. Carter recommends looking to northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. These areas are expected to see significant snowfall, making them a haven for those seeking a traditional white Christmas.
A Dwindling Tradition
The maps below illustrate a sobering trend. Four years ago, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its 30-year climate baselines, revealing that white Christmases have become statistically scarcer. While some areas see year-to-year spikes, the long-term data show more regions experiencing a decrease in snow probability than an increase.
As the planet warms, the “ones we used to know” are becoming harder to find. For much of the continent this year, the dream of a white Christmas will remain just that — a song on the radio and a memory of winters past. The snow depth forecast is for 12 a.m. Eastern on Christmas Day and is the prediction as of 1 a.m. Eastern on Dec. 22, with higher uncertainty in parts of the Canadian forecast.
The Song Born in the Sun
American culture’s most enduring anthem of winter nostalgia, “White Christmas,” was written under a palm tree. Irving Berlin began composing the song around 1938 while working in Southern California. According to James Kaplan, the author of the book “Irving Berlin: New York Genius,” Berlin may have been nostalgic for the snow, having grown up on the Lower East Side.
In his original, rarely heard introductory verse, Berlin made his feelings clear on the difference between a Los Angeles Christmas and one back East: “The sun is shining, the grass is green, the orange and palm trees sway. There’s never been such a day in Beverly Hills, L.A. But it’s December the twenty-fourth, And I am longing to be up north.” When Bing Crosby recorded the song in 1942, that verse was cut, stripping away the song’s California context and turning it into a universal longing for a snowy past.
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