Atlantic Tropical Disturbance: A Developing Story
The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of the eastern Atlantic tropical disturbance developing into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gabrielle, with chances of development over the next week in the high category. According to , FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross joins Weather Command to discuss the latest developments.
As of Updated at 9:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025, the various computer forecasts are all over the place, with some models analyzing the atmospheric conditions ahead of the disturbance as reasonably conducive to development, while others predict that development will be slow due to dust and dry air and hostile upper-level winds from an upper-level low pressure system. The question of exactly how strong the blocking high to the north is going to be also remains a factor. A rule of forecasting is that predictions for systems that are disorganized, just developing, or moving slowly are always subject to large errors and likely to change.
For a better understanding of the tropical Atlantic basin, 
provides an overview of the current situation. If the disturbance finds a pocket of atmosphere that allows it to spin up and intensify into Tropical Storm Gabrielle relatively soon, the consensus of the various computer forecasts is that the system will veer to the north before reaching the islands.
Possible Tracks and Development
If the system stays weaker longer, it’s more likely to track closer to the northeastern Caribbean, opening up a lot of possibilities. The atmospheric pattern in the vicinity of the Caribbean looks like it will be more conducive for development next week, but there are many moving parts. At FOX Weather, an exclusive Tropical Threat analysis based on the European, U.S. GFS, and Google DeepMind AI models output shows the reasonable range of possibilities for the system’s track and chance of developing into at least a tropical depression. Notice that the odds of any singular outcome are low, as indicated by the 
.
The possible turn to the north will only happen if the big dip in the jet stream that is forecast to be over the eastern part of the U.S. next week can grab the system. If it gets reasonably strong, the turn north is more likely to happen. On the other hand, if the disturbance stays weak too long, it’s more likely to track farther west. Everything is in slow motion here, so there’s nothing to do but wait and observe. On the current schedule, the system won’t even be in the vicinity of the islands until seven or eight days from now, allowing for a lot of potential changes.
Pacific Hurricanes: Lorena and Kiko
Hurricane Lorena is forecast to weaken over the cool ocean water near Baja California Sur, with the current forecast indicating it will make landfall about Thursday well north of Cabo San Lucas as a tropical storm. 
shows the two active hurricanes in the Pacific. Hurricane Kiko is still heading west in the general direction of Hawaii, with the strong consensus being that Kiko will weaken dramatically before it reaches the islands early to mid-next week. A noticeable moisture surge is still possible, however, especially on the Big Island.
For the most up-to-date information on these storms, it’s essential to stay informed through reliable sources. You can find more information and updates on the tropical disturbances and hurricanes Here.
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