Tropical Depression Seven Upgraded, Expected to Develop into Tropical Storm Gabrielle
The tropical disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven, according to the National Hurricane Center. Despite fighting dust and dry air, the system’s circulation has developed sufficiently to classify it as a depression. As seen in the image, the dusty air is impacting the west side of the elongated circulation.
This image shows Saharan dust over the Atlantic Ocean.
(FOX Weather)
Tropical Depression Seven is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Gabrielle as soon as later today, although it still has some work to do. The computer forecast models show a strong consensus that the system will turn north well before reaching the Caribbean islands, potentially bringing extra high surf to the north and east sides of the islands beginning late Friday or early Saturday.
Tracking Tropical Depression Seven
The National Hurricane Center has released a graphic showing information on Tropical Depression Seven, which can be seen below.
This graphic shows information on Tropical Depression Seven.
(FOX Weather)
As the system passes the islands, the weather pattern is forecast to become increasingly conducive to strengthening. Many computer forecasts show Gabrielle becoming a strong hurricane as it moves north and then hooks to the northeast into the open ocean. However, the consensus of the latest predictions indicates that Gabrielle will miss Bermuda to the east, although this is not yet 100% certain.
Tropical Threat Analysis
The FOX Weather Tropical Threat analysis combines the European, American GFS, and Google DeepMind models to show where likely-Gabrielle is most likely to track over the next week.
This graphic shows the tropical threat chances from Tropical Depression Seven.
(FOX Weather)
The analysis shows that the highest odds are just east of Bermuda, with a caveat that all forecasts for disorganized or just developing systems are subject to change. Additionally, a blue area over and south of the Bahamas indicates a low, but not zero, probability that a separate system could track that way next week.
Other Tropical Disturbances
Another tropical disturbance over the far eastern Atlantic is moving west in the general direction of the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center is giving this one a low chance of developing, and the computer models don’t expect it to do much. However, it’s fighting with dry air, and its biggest impediment to development looks to be the strong flow of air coming out of what’s forecast to be Hurricane Gabrielle.
This graphic shows information on development chances for a tropical wave in the Atlantic.
(FOX Weather)
The consensus of the computer forecasts is that this disturbance will arrive at the Caribbean islands early next week as a gusty moisture surge. Down the road, this disturbance is likely the one the models are picking up on for possible development near the Bahamas, although the odds are low at this point.
Giant South Florida Hurricanes
This part of September has historically been a time of high impact for giant hurricanes in South Florida. On Sept. 17, 1926, the afternoon Miami news warned of a tropical storm heading toward the city, which ultimately devastated all of South Florida.
This image shows the Miami Daily News in September, 1926.
(FOX Weather)
Other notable hurricanes that affected South Florida include the 1928 hurricane that slammed into West Palm Beach, taking at least 2,500 lives, and the 1947 hurricane that came ashore near Fort Lauderdale, spreading bad weather from south of Miami to north of Palm Beach.
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